Watch chip fab projects

The global semiconductor industry is undergoing its most dramatic geographic restructuring since the 1990s, driven simultaneously by AI-fueled demand growth, geopolitical competition, and hard lessons from pandemic-era shortages. Global chip sales reached a record $795.6 billion in 2025 and are projected to reach $1.5 trillion in 2026 and $2.3 trillion by 2030 ^[4][6][52]. Production remains dangerously concentrated: TSMC alone holds 72.5% of foundry revenue and Taiwan produces the overwhelming majority of the world's most advanced chips ^[32][46]. A massive, multi-trillion-dollar buildout is underway across the US, Europe, Japan, South Korea, and India — but most new capacity will not reach volume production until 2028–2030, leaving a multi-year window of acute vulnerability. Meanwhile, China is making real but constrained progress toward self-sufficiency, and a cascade of chokepoints — in lithography equipment, rare earth materials, advanced packaging, water, energy, and talent — means that even well-funded diversification plans face serious execution risk.